The Peru - Ecuador Conflict: The Untold Story

This book analyzes the definitive resolution of the prolonged territorial conflict between Peru and Ecuador in 1998. Through an unprecedented perspective, the author combines the methodological tools of the Harvard Negotiation Project, focused on shifting from positions to underlying interests, with game theory models applied to real strategic interactions. The work examines the transition from the Cenepa armed clashes and unofficial discussion spaces to the decisional redesign that made a lasting peace viable

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Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Routine decisions that do not involve perceived risk are made without much thought. On the other hand, decisions that involve conflict or may affect our future are weighed against our intuition, which is often mistaken.

If we think that we are guided by our reasoning, as a rule, our knowledge is imperfect, limited, and generally based

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Content by Chapters

Chapter 1 -> Introduction to decision analysis
Chapter 2 -> Elements of a decision
Chapter 3 -> Analytica: Concepts and management
Chapter 4 -> Binomial, discrete and model distributions
Chapter 5 -> Expected value and average
Chapter 6 -> Theoretical probality distributions
Chapter 7 -> Central limit theorem (CLT)
Chapter 8 -> Monte carlo method (Paradoxes)
Chapter 9 -> Risk profiles and decisions
Chapter 10 -> Projects
Chapter 11 -> Regressions
Chapter 12 -> About crises

Jorge Muro Arbulu

Specializing in physics, negotiation, and leadership at Harvard.